A guide to forecast maps

Working with uncertainty

A forecast describes likely conditions, not a promise. Read the time window and the provider's definitions.

Read probability with its definition

A precipitation probability is tied to a forecast period and geographic area. Providers may define and display it differently, so use the legend or help text for that forecast. It is not a guarantee that rain will occur at a particular point.

Use a time window

Look for the forecast's start and end times, time zone, and update date. A broad time window can hide short changes, while a detailed map can still be uncertain farther into the future.

Combine sources carefully

Radar and station observations describe recent or current conditions; forecasts estimate what may happen later. They can differ because they measure different things and cover different times.